Here's the trajectories of the SL-12 debris in the ISS-Centered
TEME frame (the +Z axis points in the direction of the true Earth's north pole).
The yellow circle represents the ISS and the black lines represent the SL-12 DEB predicted trajectories calculated with the CSpOC's SGP4 library and the TLEs listed in the table at the bottom.
The popup label that appears when you hover the mouse over the trajectories shows the UTC time (the date is July 3) and the distance between the objects (km).
Here's the same graph as above, but in the ISS-Centered
RIC frame (the ISS velocity vector is almost exactly coincident with the +I axis).
The semi transparent red box represents the pizza box. The graph clearly shows that without a corrective maneuver, SL-12 DEB would have severely violated the pizza box.
Here's the list of the TLEs used for the calculations and the values obtained with the CSpOC's SGP4 library.
Explanation of the columns
UTC: time of the minimum distance between the two objects;
TLEISS and
TLESL12 [DoY]: TLE used for the calculations;
Dmin [km]: minimum distance between the two objects;
Drad [km]: radial distance between the two objects at the time of the closest approach; it's the difference between the magnitude of the two radius vectors (D
rad < 0 means that SL-12 DEB is below the ISS);
Rel spd [km/s]: relative speed between the two objects;
AgeISS and
AgeSL12 [hours]: difference between the time of the closest approach and the TLE epoch.
There are 130 rows and 87 of them (67%) violate the pizza box.
The average values are: UTC = 2020-07-03 18:28:09.155, D
min = 2.3 km and |D
rad| = 415 m.